Ukraine Update: July 7, 2025
New Russian Attacks in Zaporizhia
Ground War:
Russian commanders appear to have launched the next phase of their summer offensive in Ukraine. After the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) contained and even pushed back Russia’s incursion in Sumy Oblast, the Kremlin’s commanders appeart o have turned their attention to Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Reports from military bloggers suggest a significant wave of attacks all along the front.
MilitaryNewsUA wrote, “For the first time in 3 years, Russia has begun to storm the Zaporizhia region along the entire (!) front line, - the commander of the battalion of the 65th Mechanized Brigade. He specifies that the enemy is operating in small groups of 3-4 people, the activity of both assault operations and the number of drones, FPV, reconnaissance UAVs, and artillery strikes has increased.”
While this is likely only the start of this new effort, some Ukrainian sources are already speculating about Russian objectives. Visioner wrote, “ The objective of the Russian army is to reach the highway leading to Mariupol, disrupt the logistics of the Ukrainian Donetsk grouping, capture Orikhiv, enter Kamianske, and then advance toward Kamyshuvakha.” While I would suggest caution about early assessments, Visioners analysis seems reasonable. While Russian offensives in other places come and go, the Kremlin has maintained constant pressure in Donetsk Oblast. It would be reasonable to imagine this attack might be subservient to that objective.
Julian Ropcke has charted some of the recent fighting in Donetsk. He wrote of a, “Big Russian advance northeast of Pokrovsk. Russian invasion forces captured 30 square kilometers in 2 weeks here, including the villages #Shevchenko_Pershe, #Koptyeve and at least half of #Razine. The advance threatens numerous supply routes, coming in FPV drone range.” He also reported that, “Russian invasion forces captured #Piddubne and Southern #Tolstoi in Western Donetsk oblast. Ukrainian defenders recaptured Western #Dachne in Eastern Dnipropetrovsk oblast.”
Maks 25 shared a report from the New York Times underscoring the significance of Russia’s effort in Donetsk Oblast. He wrote, “Russia may break through Ukraine's defenses in Donbas and come close to capturing the entire Donetsk region, — NYT. AFU are in a dangerous situation on the approaches to Kostiantynivka, and the city is the southern gateway to the chain of cities that form Ukraine's last major defensive belt in the Donetsk region. If it falls, almost all cities further north will fall into the range of Russian drones. This will bring Moscow closer to its long-awaited goal of capturing the entire Donbas.” Notably, the Russian army is also attacking in neighboring Luhansk Oblast. Visioner writes, “After a considerable pause, activity has resumed on the Luhansk axis — Ukrainian forces have liberated the village of Sverdlovka and are approaching the outskirts of Novoyehorivka from the west.”
Russian Air Attack:
While Russia’s summer ground strategy is still developing, their air strategy is already clear. The Kremlin’s forces have steadily increased the frequency and scale of their drone and missile attacks in an effort to make Ukraine’s cities unlivable. Maks 25 shared a report about recent attacks form Ukraine’s president writing, “Zelensky: Emergency and rescue operations have been ongoing in Donetsk and Dnipro regions since last night. In Kharkiv, rubble is being cleared after a strike on residential high-rise buildings. 27 people were injured, including three children. The youngest, a girl, is only three years old. Three people were hospitalized. Unfortunately, one person died in Odesa. My condolences to the family and friends. In total, there were about 1,270 drones, 39 missiles, and almost a thousand KABs over the past week.
Ukrainian Strikes:
While Russia pounds Ukrainian cities, the AFU has steadily targeted Russian military installations and vital war industries. About the latest attacks, NOEL Reports wrote, “Ukrainian forces targeted the Krasnozavodsky Chemical Plant, located ~550 km from the front, with FP-1 drones. The facility is crucial for Russia’s production of solid-fuel rocket components, including oxidizers and propellants used in S-300/S-400, Iskander, Buk, and Tor systems, as well as naval and air-launched missiles. It also handles explosive synthesis and munitions disposal.” Heroiam Slava added, “The Ilsk oil refinery in the Krasnodar region of the Russian Federation was hit by long-range GUR drones. One of the technological workshops of the enterprise was hit.”
Russian Internal Woes:
Reports from inside Russia suggesting mounting tension in Vladimir Putin’s inner circle. The pressures of years of war, international sanctions, and Ukrainian attacks have pushed the Russian economy to the edge. Today, Russia’s dictator lashed out at an allied oligarch and key government official.
NEXTA reported today that, “Former Russian Transport Minister, Fired by Putin Today, Found Dead. The dismissal came amid chaos at Russian airports. Roman Starovoit was found dead in the Moscow region. Preliminary reports say he died by suicide at his home in the Odintsovo district, according to pro-Kremlin media.” The Kyiv Insider added that, “One of the richest men in Russia, Gold magnate Konstantin Strukov was blocked from fleeing Russia, his jet grounded, with court order to "nationalize" his empire. A loyalist, now targeted. The war needs cash.”
Global Security:
Russia has increasingly turned to China as a lifeline for both the economy and supplies of vital war materiel. NATO’s Secretary General Mark Rutte told reporers today that Chinese aid could well come at a cost to Russia and Western Europe. NEXTA wrote, “NATO chief: China could unleash Russia on NATO to distract U.S. from Taiwan — The New York Times. China might push Russia to attack NATO territory in Europe to divert American attention from the Indo-Pacific and facilitate an invasion of Taiwan, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte told The New York Times. "Let’s not be naive: if Xi Jinping decides to attack Taiwan, he’ll first call his junior partner in all this, Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, living in Moscow, and tell him: ‘Listen, I’m about to do this, and I need you to distract them in Europe by attacking NATO territory,’" Rutte said. He emphasized that NATO must be prepared for such a scenario, warning that global security is increasingly interconnected.”
