Ukraine Update: July 15, 2025
Signal to Noise
US Policy:
Yesterday, President Trump announced new action on the Russo-Ukrainian War. Figures in the Ukrainian information space continue to parse his new plan finding both points to celebrate and points for concern.
Ukrainians celebrated the Trump administration’s decision to authorize new weapons sales for Ukraine using funds from NATO. It seems that at least some of that arms and ammunition is already on the way to Ukraine. Visioner reported, “According to The New York Times, the American equipment that NATO is set to purchase for Ukraine is ready for immediate delivery. The equipment and ammunition are either from existing U.S. Army stockpiles or have just rolled off production lines. The latter only requires documentation and registration before being ready for shipment.”
The White House may also be preparing to lift restrictions on the use of some weapons systems already in Ukraine. Ukraine Battle Map wrote, “The US is considering selling 18 ATACMS missiles for Ukraine and considering allowing them to be used at 300km range into Russia, according to the Washington Post. The US may also allow Ukraine to use its remaining stockpile of ATACMS on Russia, which is 20 missiles or less.”
However, President Trump pushed back against reports that he was considering transferring long range missiles (like the Tomahawk to Ukraine) and denied reports that he suggested the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) target Moscow and St. Petersburg in an effort to s hock Russia to the negotiating table. Tatarigami_UA wrote, “When asked by journalists if he was willing to give long-range missiles to Ukraine, Trump said, “No, we’re not looking to do that.” He also added, “No, he shouldn’t target Moscow.”
The most troubling piece of Trump’s statement was his ultimatum to Russia. He threatened Russia with massive new sanctions if the Kremlin did not reach a truce arrangement with Ukraine in fifty days. Axios reported that Putin was preparing a fifty-day all out push to secure territory in the regions of Ukraine he illegally annexed several years ago. If the President stuck to his timetable, it would mean he is giving Russia one last campaign season to seize Ukrainian territory. There’s also no guarantee Trump will make good on his threats.
That was the attitude in Moscow. Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov poked fun at Trump’s many deadlines saying, “Fifty days — we’ve been through that. Twenty-four hours — we’ve been through that too. A hundred days — we’ve seen it all,” according to the Kyiv Post. Maks 25 quoted the President of the European Commission writing, “Kallas on Trump's deadline for Putin: "On the one hand, it is very positive that President Trump is taking a firm stance on Russia. On the other hand, 50 days is a very long time if we see that they are killing innocent civilians."" Others noted that Trump’s remarks might derail a congressional effort to impose new sanctions on Russia immediately.
Phillips P. O’Brien wrote, “Trump has not guaranteed that he will put sanctions on Russia in 50 days, he has offered Putin protection against additional sanctions for 50 days. And he can always extend beyond that.” ChrisO_Wiki offered a similar take writing, “For what it's worth, I think Trump's 50 day "ultimatum" is not aimed at Vladimir Putin but at Lindsey Graham and the other anti-Putin Republicans. It gets them off Trump's back for the next 50 days, after which he'll think of another way to kick the can further down the road.” Overall, President Trump’s announcement appears to be a case of, “The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly.”
Russian Air Attacks:
While the Trump administration finds its way in fits and starts, Ukrainian civilians continue to face daily bombardment. Kate from Kharkiv reported that, last night, “Prykolotne village in the Kharkiv region. Russian drone attack destroyed homes and injured a 68-years old woman.” During the day, Saint Javelin reported, “A ballistic missile strike just hit Odesa — thick smoke is rising over the city. According to local media, the missile was equipped with a cluster warhead.”
Now, a new drone attack appears to be underway in the nation’s northeast. Kate from Kharkiv wrote, “7 explosions in a row in Kharkiv — the city is under attack by Shaheds! Another herd of ~8 units is approaching the city!” Then, Defense of Ukraine reported, “13th and 14th explosions in Kharkiv! drones are arriving and exploding faster than I type. Its very intense.” The Ukrainian people deserve so much more than the White House is willing to give.
